Analysis of 2022 California State-Wide Ballot Propositions
By Gideon Heltzer
During the 2022 election cycle, Californians were presented with seven state-wide propositions:
|Prop. 1||Provide a state constitutional right to reproductive freedom, defined to include abortion and contraceptives.|
|Prop. 26||Legalize sports betting at American Indian gaming casinos and licensed racetracks in California.|
|Prop. 27||Legalize online and mobile sports betting in California.|
|Prop. 28||Require funding for K-12 art and music education.|
|Prop. 29||Enact staffing requirements, reporting requirements, ownership disclosure, and closing requirements for chronic dialysis clinics.|
|Prop. 30||Create a 1.75% tax on personal income above $2 million and allocate revenue for zero-emissions vehicle and wildfire programs.|
|Prop. 31||Uphold a ban on the sale of flavored tobacco products.|
The seven state-wide propositions on the 2022 ballot in California covered a wide-range of topics. Three propositions relate to healthcare: Proposition 1 protects reproductive freedoms, Proposition 29 increases regulation of dialysis clinics, and Proposition 31 bans the sale of flavored tobacco products. Two propositions relate to the expansion of gambling rights: Proposition 26 focuses on American Indian gaming casinos and racetracks while Proposition 27 focuses on online and mobile sports betting. A single proposition, Proposition 28, relates to education, focusing on funding for art and music elementary education, and a single proposition, Proposition 30, relates to taxes and the environment, proposing an increase in the personal tax rate for income over $2 million inorder to fund environmentally responsible programs.
Three of the seven state-wide ballot propositions passed, including two of the three propositions related to healthcare (Propositions 1 and 31) and the singular education-focused proposition (Proposition 28):
|Proposition||Description||Result||Actual Votes||Actual Support||BVG Votes||BVG Support||Difference in Support|
|Prop. 1||Provide a state constitutional right to reproductive freedom, defined to include abortion and contraceptives.||Pass||10,730,444||66.88%||1,731||99.65%||32.77%|
|Prop. 26||Legalize sports betting at American Indian gaming casinos and licensed racetracks in California.||Fail||10,643,715||33.02%||1,556||47.81%||14.79%|
|Prop. 27||Legalize online and mobile sports betting in California.||Fail||10,755,539||17.72%||1,690||93.85%||76.13%|
|Prop. 28||Require funding for K-12 art and music education.||Pass||10,752,580||64.40%||1,715||98.48%||34.08%|
|Prop. 29||Enact staffing requirements, reporting requirements, ownership disclosure, and closing requirements for chronic dialysis clinics.||Fail||10,645,600||31.60%||1,646||73.39%||41.79%|
|Prop. 30||Create a 1.75% tax on personal income above $2 million and allocate revenue for zero-emissions vehicle and wildfire programs.||Fail||10,764,289||42.37%||1,638||78.82%||36.45%|
|Prop. 31||Uphold a ban on the sale of flavored tobacco products.||Pass||10,726,807||63.42%||1,705||94.31%||30.89%|
Analysis: 2022 California State-Wide Propositions
BVG voters voted in support of all propositions except for Proposition 26. The most voted for proposition among BVG voters was Proposition 1, which pertains to constitutionally protecting abortions, with 1,731 votes. The least voted for California ballot proposition among BVG voters was Proposition 26, which pertains to legalizing sports betting on tribal lands, with 1,556 votes. The most voted for item among BVG voters that was not a California ballot proposition was Los Angeles County's “Measure A” which related to the removal of sheriff for cause amendment, with 713 votes.
When BVG proposition votes are compared with actual votes, many trends become apparent. Most notable is that BVG voters were more strongly in support of all seven propositions, relative to actual voters, with a minimum difference of 14.79% (Proposition 26) and a maximum difference of 76.13% (Proposition 27). Interestingly, these two propositions, which were most polarizing across actual and BVG voters, both relate to gambling.
In terms of the three propositions which passed, Props. 1, 28 and 31, the differences between support from BVG voters and actual voters were approximately the same at 32.77%, 34.08% and 30.89%, respectively.
Regarding the three propositions which BVG voters wanted to pass yet actual voters did not, Props. 27, 29 and 30, the largest difference between support from actual voters and BVG voters is Proposition 27 at 76.13%, while the smallest difference between support from actual voters and BVG voters is Proposition 30 at 36.45%. Note that Proposition 30 has 42.37% of support from actual voters, which is the highest percentage of support from actual voters for a proposition which failed.
There is only one proposition which did not receive over 50% of support from either actual voters or BVG voters, which is Proposition 26. As discussed above, this proposition also had the tightest margin when comparing BVG votes to actual votes.
Additional Analysis: BVG Results Beyond California
During the 2022 cycle, BVG had a presence in the following nine states: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. For every proposition across these nine states where over 50 BVG voters voted, the average result for a proposition that BVG voters voted for was 87.3% and the average results for a failed vote was 13.7% This shows the polarization among BVG voters.
The top nine voted for propositions (including those which are not state-wide) are from California and the top 31 are from CA, FL, and AZ. The 32nd is from Austin TX with 125 votes. The next four most-voted for propositions are also from Texas.